Bohemians 1905 0-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bohemians 1905 (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Pardubice.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.

Pardubice have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pardubice away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Bohemians 1905's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 4W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Pardubice winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 57% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | Pardubice 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.68 xG and Pardubice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.012 / defence 1.281 | Pardubice attack 0.897 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.227. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Bohemians 1905 games / 42 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 31%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Pardubice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 80% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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