Bohemians 1905 0-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (Relegation Round - 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Pardubice have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pardubice away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Bohemians 1905, 1.40 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Bohemians 1905, who have won 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Pardubice — Pardubice have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 2–1 Pardubice — a Bohemians 1905 win.
The head-to-head data gives Bohemians 1905 an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | Pardubice 45%). Note also that Pardubice surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.836 / defence 0.900 | Pardubice attack 0.935 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 60 games and Pardubice's last 60.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 31%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.57 | Draw 3.27 | Pardubice 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bohemians 1905 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.25 / Pardubice 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.836 / def 0.900 | Pardubice attack 0.935 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pardubice xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Round - 5) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 39% chance of winning, Pardubice a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.84x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.94x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 60 games and Pardubice's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.27
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.34
1.08
Pardubice xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.08 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 69 games, going 24W 19D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.13 PPG from 69 outings (22W 12D 35L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.13 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 11W 11D 12L across their last 34 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 34 away games (10W 4D 20L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.12 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 24W 19D 26L in their last 69 games (1.32 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 22W 12D 35L in their last 69 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Pardubice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.29 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Pardubice have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Pardubice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Pardubice 2-1 Bohemians 1905.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 53%, Pardubice 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bohemians 1905) and 53% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 29% of games; Pardubice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 47% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 53% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 68% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Pardubice attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 31%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 51%, Pardubice 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.32 PPG, Pardubice 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.