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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 1-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.40 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.10 / defence 1.38, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 30%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 44%, Mlada Boleslav 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.22 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights