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Dominant Karviná run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Bohemians 1905 0-3 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Karviná 1.51 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Karviná outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.70 / defence 0.97 against Karviná attack 1.21 / defence 1.37, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 26% | Karviná 41%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 44%, Karviná 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karviná's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Karviná 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights