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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bohemians 1905 and Karviná share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 and Karviná finished level at 3-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.96 xG and Karviná 1.70 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.96 / defence 1.42 against Karviná attack 1.01 / defence 1.38, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Karviná 33%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 51%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG, Karviná 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights