Bohemians 1905 3-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's home record at Stadion Ďolíček: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Karviná (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Karviná in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bohemians 1905 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 55% versus Karviná 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | Karviná 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.96 xG and Karviná 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.964 / defence 1.417 | Karviná attack 1.007 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.191. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Bohemians 1905 games / 48 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Karviná 33%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Karviná 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 60% | Karviná 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Karviná 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.96 / Karviná 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.964 / def 1.417 | Karviná attack 1.007 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Karviná xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 3 Karviná.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 43% chance of winning, Karviná a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 1905 4W | Draws 2 | Karviná 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Karviná (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.96) and Karviná's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.01x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
43%
2.30
24%
4.25
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.66
1.70
Karviná xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
5%
21.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.70 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 18D 21L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 15W 12D 26L from 53 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.08 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 6W 5D 15L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.04 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 18D 21L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Karviná have gone 15W 12D 26L in their last 53 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Karviná away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.15 PPG; Karviná away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, Karviná have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Karviná 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 62% (Karviná). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 42% of games; Karviná in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 58% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 62% of Karviná's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Karviná tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Karviná in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná finished level at 3-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.96 xG and Karviná 1.70 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.96 / defence 1.42 against Karviná attack 1.01 / defence 1.38, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Karviná 33%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 51%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG, Karviná 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.