Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 37%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Dolicek Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 August 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 2D 5L at Dolicek Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.29 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.943 / defence 0.915 | Hradec Králové attack 1.002 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.362. Data: 31 Bohemians 1905 games / 31 Hradec Králové games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 35%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dolicek Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.29 / Hradec Králové 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.943 / def 0.915 | Hradec Králové attack 1.002 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Dolicek Stadium.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek Stadium.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 37% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 4W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.55
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
Hradec Králové xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.25 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 6D 16L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové's form line: 17W 7D 9L from 33 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 6W 3D 7L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.48 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 6D 16L in their last 33 games (1.18 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 7D 9L in their last 33 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Hradec Králové away?
Hradec Králové's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.12 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 38%, Hradec Králové 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 62% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dolicek Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.29 xG and Hradec Králové 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Hradec Králové attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 35%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 42%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.