🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Dolicek. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 2D 4L at Dolicek — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.30 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Hradec Králové winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Hradec Králové trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 45% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 45% | Hradec Králové 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.13 xG and Hradec Králové 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.836 / defence 0.938 | Hradec Králové attack 1.134 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.222. Data: 43 Bohemians 1905 games / 43 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 29% | Draw 35% | Hradec Králové 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Hradec Králové 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Hradec Králové 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights