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Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.46 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Hradec Králové attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 44%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights