🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out České Budějovice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 2.60 xG and České Budějovice 1.48 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 1.40 against České Budějovice attack 0.88 / defence 1.71, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 62% | Draw 18% | České Budějovice 20%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 51%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

České Budějovice's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.78 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights