🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.15 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.39 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 42%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 50%, Baník Ostrava 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights