🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Zlin 2-0 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Relegation Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.72 xG and Zlin 1.03 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zlin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Zlin attack 0.79 / defence 1.41, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 52% | Draw 26% | Zlin 22%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 30%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.

Zlin's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Baník Ostrava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights