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Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Zlin 6-2 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.04 xG and Zlin 0.70 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Zlin attack 0.66 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 42% | Draw 36% | Zlin 23%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 25%, Zlin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Zlin's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Baník Ostrava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights