Baník Ostrava vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Baník Ostrava welcome Teplice to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Teplice — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Baník Ostrava: 6 wins from 10 previous clashes against 3 for Teplice, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Teplice winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Baník Ostrava and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 33% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Teplice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 0.82 xG and Teplice 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.687 / defence 1.106 | Teplice attack 1.160 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Baník Ostrava's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Baník Ostrava games / 43 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 16% | Draw 29% | Teplice 55%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Teplice 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Baník Ostrava dominate the H2H record, yet Teplice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 10% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 16% | Draw 29% | Teplice 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Baník Ostrava 0.82 / Teplice 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.687 / def 1.106 | Teplice attack 1.160 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Teplice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Teplice xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 16% chance of winning, Teplice a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Record (10 meetings): Baník Ostrava 6W | Draws 1 | Teplice 3W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
16%
6.11
29%
3.47
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.47
1.65
Teplice xG
6.11
16%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
3%
31.69
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.65 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 10D 26L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 16W 15D 17L from 48 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 0.96 PPG, Teplice on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 8W 8D 7L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.27 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Teplice have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.22 PPG; Teplice away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Teplice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Teplice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 22%, Teplice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Baník Ostrava) and 48% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Teplice in 30%; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 52% of games; Teplice in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 56% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 48% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Teplice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Teplice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.