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Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Teplice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 2-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.63 xG and Teplice 0.84 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.09 / defence 0.80 against Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 25% | Teplice 19%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 50%, Teplice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Teplice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights