Baník Ostrava 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round - 3 as Baník Ostrava welcome Teplice to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baník Ostrava at 1.40 PPG versus Teplice's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 1 for Teplice and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 5–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 66% and Teplice 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 63% | Teplice 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.39 xG and Teplice 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.757 / defence 1.079 | Teplice attack 1.029 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Baník Ostrava's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Baník Ostrava games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Teplice 36%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 50% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Teplice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.39 / Teplice 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.757 / def 1.079 | Teplice attack 1.029 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Teplice xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Baník Ostrava 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 36% chance of winning, Teplice a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Record (2 meetings): Baník Ostrava 1W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.53
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.77
1.39
Teplice xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.39 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 25W 19D 23L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 19W 14D 34L from 67 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.40 PPG, Teplice on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (14W 7D 11L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 6W 6D 20L from 32 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.16 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 25W 19D 23L in their last 67 games (1.40 PPG), while Teplice have gone 19W 14D 34L in their last 67 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Teplice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.53 PPG; Teplice away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Teplice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 66%, Teplice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Baník Ostrava and 75% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Baník Ostrava's games and 59% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 75% of Teplice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Teplice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Teplice in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 2-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.39 xG and Teplice 1.39 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Teplice attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Teplice 36%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 63%, Teplice 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.40 PPG, Teplice 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.