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Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Táborsko.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Táborsko 3-0 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Relegation - Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.41 xG and Táborsko 1.11 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Táborsko landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Táborsko attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 43% | Draw 29% | Táborsko 29%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights