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Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Baník Ostrava 0-3 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.10 xG and Sparta Praha 1.44 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Sparta Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 27% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 43%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 46%, Sparta Praha 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.79 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights