🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Sparta Praha 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Sparta Praha 3-2 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Championship Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.49 xG and Sparta Praha 1.15 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.25 / defence 0.84 against Sparta Praha attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 45% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 29%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 52%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.72. Form was overturned, with Baník Ostrava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights