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Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slovan Liberec beat Baník Ostrava 0-2 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.60 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.09 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 49% | Draw 25% | Slovan Liberec 26%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 49%, Slovan Liberec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights