Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.22) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
25%
3.99
29%
3.40
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.75
1.60
Slavia Praha xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
5%
19.73
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.60 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.