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Stalemate at Baník Ostrava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Championship Round - 2, as Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.55 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.03 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 49% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 25%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 51%, Sigma Olomouc 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights