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Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.69 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.24 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 24% | Sigma Olomouc 28%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 52%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.67 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights