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Dominant Pardubice run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Baník Ostrava 1-4 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.43 xG and Pardubice 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Pardubice attack 1.16 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 38%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Pardubice 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Pardubice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights