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Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 5-2 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.19 xG and Pardubice 0.60 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.20 / defence 0.80 against Pardubice attack 0.67 / defence 1.32, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 73% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 8%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 51%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Pardubice's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights