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Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Mlada Boleslav 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.53 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.05 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.12 / defence 0.76 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.17 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 47% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 25%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 51%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.64 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights