Baník Ostrava 3-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 37%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to face Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baník Ostrava have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Baník Ostrava at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hradec Králové are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hradec Králové in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Baník Ostrava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 69% and Hradec Králové 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 66% | Hradec Králové 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.15 xG and Hradec Králové 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.962 / defence 1.312 | Hradec Králové attack 0.741 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.086. Data: 30 Baník Ostrava games / 30 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 37% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 33%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Hradec Králové 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 70% | Hradec Králové 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 37% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.15 / Hradec Králové 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.962 / def 1.312 | Hradec Králové attack 0.741 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hradec Králové xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava 3 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 37% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.96x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.74x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.36
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.20
1.05
Hradec Králové xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.05 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 14W 9D 9L from 32 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 8L across 32 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 1.38 for Hradec Králové. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 7W 5D 3L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.34 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 10W 14D 8L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Hradec Králové away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.73 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 73%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Baník Ostrava) and 40% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Baník Ostrava's games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 40% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Hradec Králové 3-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Championship Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.15 xG and Hradec Králové 1.05 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against Hradec Králové attack 0.74 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 37% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 33%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 66%, Hradec Králové 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.59 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.