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Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.34 xG and Hradec Králové 1.63 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Hradec Králové attack 1.22 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 29% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 41%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 44%, Hradec Králové 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights