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Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 0.73 xG and FK Jablonec 1.39 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 17% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 50%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 43%, FK Jablonec 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.65 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights