Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baník Ostrava face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich in Czech Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Baník Ostrava) versus 1.50 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 10 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Baník Ostrava, 4 for Bohemians 1905 and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Oct 2026, ended Baník Ostrava 0–1 Bohemians 1905 — a Bohemians 1905 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 33% versus Bohemians 1905 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 44% | Bohemians 1905 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.683 / defence 1.097 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.921 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Baník Ostrava's attack rating of 0.683 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 43 games and Bohemians 1905's last 44.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 28% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 39%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.61 | Draw 3.04 | Bohemians 1905 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 10% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 28% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.06 / Bohemians 1905 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.683 / def 1.097 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.921 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Bohemians 1905 xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 28% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 43 games and Bohemians 1905's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
28%
3.61
33%
3.04
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.37
1.31
Bohemians 1905 xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
13.33
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.31 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 12W 9D 25L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 16W 11D 19L from 46 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 0.98 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 22 home games (7W 4D 11L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 5D 10L from their last 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.96 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 12W 9D 25L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.14 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Nov 2022, when Baník Ostrava won Baník Ostrava 4-1 Bohemians 1905.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Bohemians 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 23%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Baník Ostrava) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 54% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 86% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.