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Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.85 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.01 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 19%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 52%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights