Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno make the trip to Town Stadium Karvina to face Artis in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Artis's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Artis's home record at Town Stadium Karvina: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Czech Liga appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game.
Zbrojovka Brno (all games): 5W 1D 3L across 9 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.78 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Zbrojovka Brno arrive in superior form — a 1.28 PPG advantage (1.78 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Artis, 1 for Zbrojovka Brno and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Zbrojovka Brno winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Artis — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Zbrojovka Brno — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 56% versus Zbrojovka Brno 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 67% | Zbrojovka Brno 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 0.94 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.600 / defence 1.451 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.711 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.261. Artis's attack strength of 0.600 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Artis games / 9 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 25% | Draw 32% | Zbrojovka Brno 43%. Fair-value odds: Artis 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Zbrojovka Brno 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zbrojovka Brno are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Artis 50% | Zbrojovka Brno 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 25% | Draw 32% | Zbrojovka Brno 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Artis 0.94 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.600 / def 1.451 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.711 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Zbrojovka Brno xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 25% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Artis and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (1 meetings): Artis 0W | Draws 0 | Zbrojovka Brno 1W.
What form are Artis and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Artis (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.60x the league average against Zbrojovka Brno's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zbrojovka Brno's attack (0.71x) against Artis's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
25%
4.02
32%
3.09
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Artis xG
Total xG
2.24
1.30
Zbrojovka Brno xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
7%
14.75
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Artis and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Artis and 1.30 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Artis come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 2D 6L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zbrojovka Brno carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Artis's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zbrojovka Brno's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Artis are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 games (0.56 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Zbrojovka Brno's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.25 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Artis
0
Draws
1
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 1 meetings on record, Artis have won 0, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Artis and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Zbrojovka Brno 2-1 Artis.
Who has won more matches between Artis and Zbrojovka Brno?
Zbrojovka Brno have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Artis) and 25% (Zbrojovka Brno) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Artis) and 25% (Zbrojovka Brno).
On the defensive side: Artis have failed to score in 75% of games; Zbrojovka Brno in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Artis's recent matches and 25% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Artis's recent games and 25% of Zbrojovka Brno's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Artis and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.