Artis 1-4 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Artis at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Artis vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Artis and Slovácko meet at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska in Czech Liga, Relegation - Final. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovácko have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.37 xG and Slovácko 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Slovácko attack 0.895 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 0 Artis games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 39% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 33%. Fair-value odds: Artis 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Slovácko 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Artis are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Artis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation - Final | Venue: Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 39% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Artis 1.37 / Slovácko 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Slovácko attack 0.895 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Artis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Slovácko xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Slovácko kick off?
Artis vs Slovácko kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What was the final score in Artis vs Slovácko?
Artis 1 - 4 Slovácko.
Where is Artis vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska.
What competition is Artis vs Slovácko part of?
Artis vs Slovácko is a Relegation - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 39% chance of winning, Slovácko a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Artis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Artis and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Slovácko in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Slovácko away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.85x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.90x) against Artis's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Artis Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.53
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Artis xG
Total xG
2.60
1.24
Slovácko xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Artis and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Artis and 1.24 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Pre-Season
Slovácko
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovácko won 1-4 on 27 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Artis
1
Draws
2
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Slovácko?
From 3 meetings on record, Artis have won 0, Slovácko have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Artis and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Slovácko 1-1 Artis.
Who has won more matches between Artis and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Artis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Artis 1-4 at Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska, Relegation - Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Artis 1.37 xG and Slovácko 1.24 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Slovácko outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Artis attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Slovácko attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Artis 39% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 33%, with Artis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.