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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Yunnan Yukun edge out Wuhan Three Towns 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.09 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.53 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 50% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 28%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.30 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights