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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Yunnan Yukun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.21 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.91 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.67 / defence 1.34, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 67% | Draw 19% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Sichuan Jiuniu 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.29 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights