🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 4-4 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.36 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.78 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.28 / defence 0.78, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 29% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 56%, Shanghai Shenhua 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights