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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.40 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.65 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 32% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 43%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 57%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.36 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights