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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.67 / defence 1.20 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 30% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights