Yunnan Yukun 0-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.52 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.094 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.853 / away 1.219. Data: 0 Yunnan Yukun games / 30 Beijing Guoan games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Beijing Guoan 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.52 / Beijing Guoan 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.094 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.853 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Beijing Guoan xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Yunnan Yukun 0 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 38% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Beijing Guoan away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
38%
2.65
24%
4.16
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.05
1.53
Beijing Guoan xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.53 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
2
Draws
2
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Yunnan Yukun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Yunnan Yukun 0-2 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.52 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.53 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.