Wuhan Zall 1-4 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Zall host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Dongxihu Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Zall stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Dongxihu Sports Centre this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wuhan Zall 0.80 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wuhan Zall register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Wuhan Zall have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 62% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 56% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.47 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.883 / defence 1.445 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.048 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.266. Data: 31 Wuhan Zall games / 31 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 29% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.13. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 90% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 29% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.47 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.883 / def 1.445 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.048 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 29 September 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 4 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 29% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (2 meetings): Wuhan Zall 1W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wuhan Zall's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
29%
3.47
24%
4.16
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
3.39
1.92
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.47
29%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
15%
6.79
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
4%
23.56
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.92 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Zall's recent record stands at 8W 13D 18L from 39 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 18L across 39 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Zall on 0.95 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Zall have managed 4W 8D 6L from 18 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.03 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 13D 18L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 9W 12D 18L in their last 39 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.11 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shijiazhuang Y. J. go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wuhan Zall
0
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 9 December 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wuhan Zall at 89%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Wuhan Zall and 67% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Wuhan Zall's games and 72% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Wuhan Zall's matches and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Wuhan Zall and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shijiazhuang Y. J. run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Wuhan Zall 1-4 at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.47 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.92 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.88 / defence 1.45 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.05 / defence 1.20, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 29% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 56%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 0.95 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.