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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Wuhan Three Towns defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wuhan Three Towns beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 2.11 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.11 / defence 1.39 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 35% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 43%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Wuhan Three Towns win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 48%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.37 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights