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Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.94 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.11 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.68 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 56% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sichuan Jiuniu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Sichuan Jiuniu 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 0.98 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights