🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wuhan Three Towns face SHANGHAI SIPG.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Wuhan Three Towns host SHANGHAI SIPG at Wuhan Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 2W 1D 7L at Wuhan Sports Centre — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SHANGHAI SIPG — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 4 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 62% and SHANGHAI SIPG 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 48% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.09 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.143 / defence 1.307 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.510 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.418. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.510 — the away xG of 2.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Wuhan Three Towns games / 39 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 28% | Draw 19% | SHANGHAI SIPG 53%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 3.57 | Draw 5.26 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.89. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 83% | Total xG 4.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 83% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 2.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.88 combined xG gives a 87% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 83% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights