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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island finished level at 1-1 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.77 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 26%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 50%, Qingdao Youth Island 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.09 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights