Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Wuhan Three Towns's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.30 for Qingdao Youth Island. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wuhan Three Towns lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 55% versus Qingdao Youth Island 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 41% | Qingdao Youth Island 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.686 / defence 0.997 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.815 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.272. Wuhan Three Towns's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Wuhan Three Towns games / 29 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.57. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Qingdao Youth Island 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.686 / def 0.997 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.815 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Qingdao Youth Island xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 45% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.81x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.42
1.03
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.03 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 7D 14L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 7W 8D 14L from 29 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.00 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 1D 9L from 14 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.31 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 8W 7D 14L in their last 29 games (1.07 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 7W 8D 14L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.00 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 5 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 43%, Qingdao Youth Island 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 71% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 43% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Qingdao Youth Island?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 57% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 71% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.03 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.69 / defence 1.00 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Qingdao Youth Island win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 41%, Qingdao Youth Island 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.07 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.