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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-5 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.59 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.14 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 47% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 26%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Henan Jianye 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.02 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights