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Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-4 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.58 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 48%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.37 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights