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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 12, as Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.82 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.10 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 54% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 22%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights