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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City finished level at 2-2 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.40 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.01 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.29 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 27% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 52%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 48%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights