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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan finished level at 4-4 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.38 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.02 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan outscored their 2.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.88 / defence 1.19 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 24% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 51%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 48%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights